Overview of Future Trends
People
Lifestyles
Travel
Freight
Safety
The Environment
Energy
Vehicle Design
Automated Vehicles
Novel Infrastructure
Conclusion / References
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Future Trends for 2030

Detailed information: Emerging Concepts and Technologies Factsheet 

Relevant Visions: Co-operative Driving on the Automated HighwayInstitutional Change

Automated Highways

83.    "Intelligent highways" enable suitably equipped vehicles to receive information from the highway and respond appropriately. Vehicles can also detect and report hazards to the roadway, for dissemination to other travellers. An automated highway system (AHS) is a lane or set of lanes where specially equipped cars, trucks and buses can travel together under computer control. The long range goal of AHS is to significantly improve the safety and efficiency of the transport system[35]. Some estimates show an up to 80% improvement in travel safety and a doubling or tripling of lane capacity. AHS also offers the potential for substantial improvements in trip predictability, level of service, inclement weather operation, mobility and air quality.

 

Dedicated versus mixed lanes

84.    Two distinct types of automated highway are possible. The first is a dedicated lane system, in which certain lanes are reserved for automated vehicles. The second is a mixed traffic system: fully automated vehicles would share the road with partially automated or manually driven cars. Organisation of traffic on automated highways could range from free-agent vehicles to platoons. Free-agent vehicles operate independently and each would drive so that it would be able to stop without mishap even if the vehicle ahead applied maximum braking. Platooned vehicles, at the other extreme, would operate in closely co-ordinated groups to maximise highway capacity.

 

85.    Most experts agree that automation of highways is technically feasible even with existing technology but there are many factors that might prevent such systems from becoming truly practical - cost, liability, societal and institutional issues. The process would probably begin by converting part of existing highway, along with the construction of special ramps, transition lanes and barriers. Most of new technology would be packed into future cars - for example, magnetometers for steering, forward looking sensors and/or video cameras to detect dangerous obstacles and other vehicles ahead, accelerometers to control steering, breaking and throttling and allowing  "hands-off, feet off" driving. Lateral and longitudinal crash avoidance technologies may take longer to deploy, because of issues related to taking direct vehicle control.

 

US Co-operative intelligent vehicle-highway systems

86.    The United States and Japan lead the research on automated highways. The key impetus in California is vehicle congestion relief, using vehicle-vehicle and vehicle-infrastructure communications. Key functions are driver alerts that traffic is slowing ahead, hazardous road conditions (ice) and poor visibility. Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC) for toll collection is seen as a key enabling technology - thus the toll tag could be the device used for vehicle-infrastructure communications.

 

SmartCruise in Japan

87.    The Japanese "SmartCruise" program focuses on vehicle-highway co-operative systems to maximise safety. In the recent Demo 2000 an extensive array of advanced systems were in operation in a test track environment - pedestrian avoidance, staying safely on the road, and avoiding crashes straight ahead or when changing lanes. Deployment is planned in 3 stages - information/ warning only (ahs-i 2003-2005), active vehicle control (ahs-c 2005-2007), and fully automated vehicles (ahs-a 2007-2015). Key challenges seen are increasing public acceptance, full system design (reliability etc) and acceleration of the infrastructure-vehicle role sharing system (integrated standards etc).

 

France

88.    In France, the La Route Automatisée program is considering advanced forms of CIVHS for automated guidance and management of traffic over a 20-yr timescale. Public private partnerships between car manufacturers and private road operators offer a way forward here.

 

Dedicated lanes

89.    One way of increasing road capacity is to provide separate lanes for cars and trucks. Because cars are smaller and lighter, cars-only lanes can be double-decks, either above the road surface or in tunnels beneath high value real estate. Special-purpose lorry lanes could permit larger, heavier vehicles than at present and would allow these vehicles to bypass congested all-purpose lanes facilitating just-in-time deliveries.

 

Dual-mode

90.    RUF (Rapid Urban Flexible) consists of electric vehicles that can be operated both on the conventional street system and on a rail facility. They can be privately owned or publicly owned for general use. RUF could be designed as the backbone of high-capacity inter-urban arteries combining the flexibility of an individual car with mass transport capacity. Prototype systems for both passengers and freight are under development in Denmark and the US. Infrastructure costs are substantial. However, flexibility to switch between guided and unguided operation-avoiding change of vehicle and transport mode is a major advantage.

 

Maglev

91.    Maglev systems offer opportunities for improved passenger and freight transport either above or underground. Magnetic forces lift, propel and guide a vehicle over a specially designed guideway and cruising speeds of 300 mph or more are possible. At such high speeds Maglev systems have the potential to change the modal split for inter-urban traffic. Trains are environmentally friendly as they generate little noise and vibration at high speeds. Expectations are high that Maglev will some day replace conventional railways.

 

US feasibility studies

92.    The first Maglev project in the US could be operating in revenue service by 2010 if funds are appropriated[36]. Seven cities are undertaking feasibility studies and one project will be selected for possible deployment in Spring 2001. 

 

High speed trains in Japan

93.    Japan has a 1.5km High Speed Surface Transport test track (HSST) for developing Maglev trains. In Aichi it is hoped that the proposed 8.9km Tobukyuryo line will be the first full-scale operation of a Maglev system in time for the 2005 World Expo.

 

Swissmetro

94.    The Swiss are developing a Maglev tube transportation system. The prime motive is to obtain the benefits of a high-speed passenger system in a region where there are major environmental constraints. Construction of the full system is planned for 2010.

 

Freight-train

95.    These concepts are systems for freight transport that do not necessarily make use of a driver. They can be implemented at the urban level or at a long-distance level. The key issue of all container based transport innovations is to use a container of standard size to make the switch between modes easy and efficient. There are prototype systems which use existing infrastructure or dedicated infrastructure.

 

Tunnels

96.    The inherent difficulties in extending infrastructure above ground, raises questions about the greater use of tunnels for increasing network capacity[37]. Significant advances in tunnel technology and inclusion of all costs in scheme appraisal might make tunnels more competitive.

 

Tube freight

97.    There may be increased scope for using "microtunnels" for freight transport beyond traditional pipelines, particularly given advances in microtunnel technology. Tube freight transport is an unmanned system in which close-fitting capsules or trains of capsules carry containerised freight through tubes between terminals. If this system were implemented in congested areas, passenger vehicles could be separated from freight vehicles with improvements in efficiency and safety for both modes. There are proposals for unmanned tube freight systems in Tokyo and Holland.

 

Dutch IPOT programme

98.    The IPOT programme in the Netherlands is a design for a national Underground Transport and Tube system of about 10,000km with 14 major junctions for both general cargo and liquids and gases. Key concepts include automation of transhipment and standardisation of load units.

 

Airships

99.    Airships could form an integral part of sustainable passenger and freight transport. The majority of new concepts for medium and large airships rely on rigid structures for providing a maximum payload capacity, safety and efficiency. Airships cruise at a low altitude (1000 - 2000m) which helps avoid interference with other modes. They require little ground infrastructure and could link to other transport modes.

 

"Air crane" concept

100.   The Dutch CargoLifter  AG "CL160" is an example of a large semi-rigid freight airship for point-to-point delivery of heavy and bulky loads - "air crane" concept. With a payload capacity of 160 tons and a range of 10,000km this offers an option for transport of bulky goods which might otherwise require bridges to be temporarily removed or loads to be disassembled and reassembled. The first full scale prototype is to fly in summer 2001. Larger airships targeting unique market segments like bulky and heavy freight transport will require innovative solutions addressing logistic aspects of this concept. There are other developments in Russia and the US.
 

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