Overview of Future Trends
People
Lifestyles
Travel
Freight
Safety
The Environment
Energy
Vehicle Design
Automated Vehicles
Novel Infrastructure
Conclusion / References
Download Overview of Future Trends in pdf format
Future Trends for 2030
Detailed information: Environmental Issues Factsheet

Relevant Visions: The Green HighwayFavouring Public Transport; Land Use Planning

Sustainable development

51.    The effects of transportation on the environment are complex and widespread.  Air, water, land use, and animal habitats, are just a few of the areas affected.Transport is a major contributor to environmental problems at the local, regional and global levels and is now the fastest growing source of greenhouse-gas emissions. The Kyoto agreement exemplifies a growing recognition that globally and locally we have to find a more sustainable development path. Although transport provides many positive benefits for the individual as well as for the economy and society, it is one of the sectors which present the greatest obstacles to sustainable development.

 

52.    People are becoming increasingly concerned about the environmental problems caused by transport. Unrestrained growth in traffic will only make these problems worse and a new transport consensus recognises that the provision of road space in line with the predicted growth in road travel is no longer a primary aim. We need to find ways of making more effective use of the existing infrastructure, including better operational management and publicly acceptable ways to reduce demand and increase capacity.  Comprehensive and integrated land use and transport planning and combating the adverse environmental impacts of transport are major features of the new approach but will take many years to develop. Technology will have a key role, but behavioural responses by transport users will also be important. 

 

Global warming

53.    There is increasing scientific consensus that global warming is under way, linked at least in part to human economic activity. If atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are to be stabilised, efforts to reduce these will need to be sustained over many decades on a global scale. Since climate change cannot be prevented entirely, it will be necessary to adapt to it. Estimates suggest that a combination of wetter, stormier winters and hotter, drier summers could necessitate remedial investment in roads, railways, flood defences, water supply and coastal protection[24].

 

CO2 emissions

54.    Transport is responsible for around 23% of the UK’s emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the main greenhouse gas, and this share is rising both in relative and absolute terms[25]. The majority of energy use is for road transport (80%), with air travel accounting for a further 13%. The key to reducing greenhouse gases will be reducing the carbon intensity of the transport sector - by encouraging more efficient travel, by making transportation more fuel efficient, or by adopting fuels that will emit less carbon. Technological improvements will be encouraged by the voluntary agreement between the European Commission and European car manufacturers to reduce average CO2 emissions from new cars. 

 

Air quality

55.    Road transport is a major source of air pollutants (CO2, NOx and volatile organic compounds) and is the dominant source in many urban areas.Over the past 20 years or so, there has been significant progress in reducing air pollution. For vehicles this success has resulted primarily from improvements in vehicle fuel systems, the use of catalytic converters to treat combustion products, and the development of cleaner burning fuels. Aircraft emissions also have been reduced, largely through international standards.

 
56.    By 2030 air quality is likely to be better than it is today. The improvements will be driven by the continuing public pressure for a healthier environment. New technologies and fuels will be the mechanisms by which air quality gains are made. Electric hybrid vehicles, fuel cell engines, and new fuels - from reformulated petroleum products and new sources like biomass - will be commonplace through widespread commercialisation and "green marketing".
 

Noise

57.    Despite progress in reducing noise from individual vehicles, as traffic volumes increase, noise pollution, particularly from road and air transport, is expected to rise and become an issue of growing concern.
 

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