Scenario planning

In the Vision 2030 project three alternative socio-economic scenarios were developed each associated with a vision for the future of the transport network. They are "Global Economy" - a market-driven approach; "Sustainable Lifestyle" - a community based way of living; and "Control and Plan" based on greater regulation of movement.

Scenario planning is a method for learning, first used in the 1950s to train military leaders for Cold War contingencies. Scenarios are specially constructed narratives about the future. Each scenario represents a distinct, plausible world. The purpose is not to predict the future, but rather to show how different forces can manipulate the future in different directions. A scenario is an invitation to a group of people to rehearse what might happen in a different reality.

For each narrative, planners develop a set of strategic implications which are not confined to today's world and are not limited to excluding the unthinkable. They are not exact predictions of the future but rather represent the boundaries of possibilities. Scenario planning challenges traditional thinking by requiring planners to imagine multiple futures based on a specific trend or factor. Each scenario must present a different image of the future rather than an extension of the past.