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Methodology
Stage 2 Information Gathering

10. This stage of the project was to use the combined knowledge of experts and their informed opinion to provide a consensus on key drivers and trends in these research areas. The methods used to secure the information (see diagram) needed to be tailored to the value of the output. The project needed to access various different sources of information. For example, securing detailed individual expert opinion, based on specialist knowledge of a given subject, required a different approach to the general canvas of a wide range of specialists for their visions and personal opinions.

11. The project generated a vast amount of expert opinion and information, which was recorded in a database. Information was categorised according to influence on mobility. The database allowed information to be sorted and regrouped to assist in the project evaluation process.

12. An extensive review of information on trends and predictions across environmental, social and technological spheres was carried out as a key resource for the project.

 

The review covered:
  • Key indicators of socio-economic trends and forecasts, with quantification when it was available;
  • Expert opinion and judgement based on extensive research and knowledge in a given field, for example an analysis of trends in communication technologies and construction methods;
  • Strategic analysis of future economic and societal trends and other external influences;
  • Insights and observations that relate to the various stakeholders in the transport industry;

13. This information was brought together in a collection of "fact sheets" covering 9 main areas:

Traffic growth and user behaviour
Travel substitution
Emerging technologies and concepts
Vehicle design and technology
Energy
Environmental concerns
Freight and Logistics
Social, housing, community, health, education concerns
Relevant European projects

14. Arising from this information, a variety of social and economic issues were identified which required analysis for significance in presenting one or more visions these included:

  • The likely range of future mobility patterns
  • Constraints that are likely to be operating on the development of the transportation infrastructure 30 years hence
  • Society's requirements
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