The Transport White Paper^[4] published in 1998 and more recently, the 10-Year Plan^[5] set out the Government's approach to provide a more integrated transport system to tackle the problems of congestion and pollution. The HA's Corporate and Business Plans^[6]+[7], set out how it will deliver its role as operator of the strategic road network in England. Increasingly the HA's remit will focus on delivering outcomes such as less congestion and fewer road deaths. The role of network operator delivering modern public services poses critical challenges. The HA needs to continue to work in strategic partnership with other organisations in order to achieve its particular aims. To meet these challenges, novel, forward thinking is required at every step.

In modern day business, forward thinking is an essential part of long term planning whether for transport or other activities. The purpose of forward planning is to assess those factors that could change a business environment or to scope internal changes to a business to meet customer requirements better. Developing visions of the future, by looking at possible future needs, opportunities and threats and deciding what should be done now to ensure that we are ready for these challenges, is part of that process.

As with any visioning exercise, there are a multitude of factors that can influence forward thinking and likely outcomes. Hence, it is possible to provide only a snapshot of future possibilities. The approach taken in Vision 2030 has been to identify the key drivers and factors, both those within and outside the control of the Highways Agency, which will form and influence the mobility needs of the populace and which will shape the HA's future business strategy and scope of service.

Drivers for Change

The major driving forces affecting transport supply and demand are covered in the Vision 2030 project report "Overview of

Future Trends", which is the main deliverable from the information gathering phase of the project.

Demographic factors are important in shaping travel patterns. The number of households in England is forecast to grow faster than the population with a projected 19% increase by 2021(1996 base). Due to increasing life expectancy, almost one third of the population will be over 60 by 2031.

Our lifestyles are also expected to change as more land comes under pressure for house building and people have more leisure time.

Environmental issues have risen to the fore in recent years signified by the Kyoto agreement and a growing recognition that we have to find a more sustainable development path. Transport produces 25% of CO₂ emissions and this share is growing. Congestion also raises other issues such as air quality and resource utilisation.

>>see also Overview of Future Trends.

Major challenges ahead

In terms of energy, the transport sector is heavily dependent on crude oil, which is a finite and ultimately exhaustible resource. Energy consumption in transport is growing at a faster rate than for other sectors. Alternative and renewable fuels and new vehicle technologies offer some promising opportunities, although the migration process could take decades to complete. Automating vehicles and/or the infrastructure would also lead to a better utilisation of resources, for example, highway space.